Phase 18 Full-Population Results — Corporate A/G Research Extension

Summary

Phase 18 ran the locked Phase-15a transforms and the Phase-13 geometries on the eligible SEC non-financial operating-company universe under project filters (post Phase-12 SIC + facts-size + 3-Assets gates). The signal survives at AUROC ≈ 0.71 strict / 0.68 anchored under the realistic 1 – 2% base rate.

Cohort and panel

Eligible candidate CIKs: 7,515
Phase-15a CIKs included: 243
Admitted (post Phase-12 gates): 3,412
Excluded: 4,346
Panel rows: 38,748
Post-coverage-gate rows: 36,041
Train rows (FY ≤ 2018): 16,631
Test rows (FY 2019 – 2025): 19,410
Strict positives: 231
All-anchored positives: 354

Per-test-year base rates

FY	Rows	Strict positives	Anchored positives	Strict base rate	Anchored base rate
2019	2,604	60	97	0.0230	0.0373
2020	2,770	53	81	0.0191	0.0292
2021	3,078	53	78	0.0172	0.0253
2022	3,173	46	69	0.0145	0.0217
2023	3,185	21	31	0.0066	0.0097
2024	3,145	5	7	0.0016	0.0022
2025	3,014	0	0	0.0000	0.0000

Pooled validation (strict label)

Geometry	AUROC	95% CI	AP	Lift @ 10%	Lift @ 1%
Structural distress	0.711	[0.660, 0.753]	0.023	2.21×	0.43×
Joint-collapse severity	0.677	[0.631, 0.726]	0.021	1.90×	0.00×
Divergence / masking	0.489	[0.419, 0.551]	0.016	2.03×	3.03×

Pooled validation (all-anchored label)

Geometry	AUROC	95% CI	AP	Lift @ 10%	Lift @ 1%
Structural distress	0.683	[0.639, 0.719]	0.030	1.81×	0.85×
Joint-collapse severity	0.642	[0.602, 0.683]	0.027	1.55×	0.28×
Divergence / masking	0.510	[0.457, 0.554]	0.024	2.03×	2.54×

Per-year structural-distress AUROC (strict label)

FY	n_rows	n_pos	AUROC	Lift @ 10%
2019	2,402	58	0.668	2.24×
2020	2,545	51	0.760	2.16×
2021	2,852	51	0.725	1.57×
2022	2,963	45	0.698	1.78×
2023	2,972	21	0.708	1.91×
2024	2,897	5	0.719	2.00×
2025	2,779	0	n/a	n/a

Per-year AUROC stable across FY 2019 – 2024 (range 0.67 – 0.76). FY 2025 has zero positives in the panel because the Item 1.03 anchor table thins past 2024.

Comparison chain

Phase	Cohort	Test base rate	Structural AUROC	Joint-collapse AUROC	Divergence AUROC
15b	Enriched held-out	0.71	0.72	0.74	0.39
16	Hardening / base-rate	0.19	0.71	0.66	0.49
17	Population sample	0.07 / 0.11	0.78 / 0.76	0.76 / 0.73	0.45 / 0.47
18	Full population	0.012 / 0.018	0.711 / 0.683	0.677 / 0.642	0.489 / 0.510

Source basis: this is a public summary of CORPORATE_PHASE18_FULL_POPULATION_RESULTS.md and the underlying validation CSVs in the project repository. Numbers match the locked artifacts; CIs come from a 500-resample CIK-cluster bootstrap with numpy.random.default_rng(20260424).

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